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PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 10:02 pm 
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Posts: 48
Dear fellow High Elf players,

This afternoon I wrote some C# code to come up with some statistics on casting spells. I had done this before for normal spell casting, but the new Book of Hoeth required some extra logic.
Although the results for normal casting chance are the same as I calculated before (I wrote new code this time) and the BoH chances seem reasonable (and can be verified as correct for the "easy-to-see-for-yourself" chances in the 1 and 2 PD range), I cannot guarantee correctness and will not be held liable for any lousy tournament results :wink:

The Statistics

You can find the xls spreadsheets here:

General Casting Statistics:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1OoeO7if8VpbU41ZlFRMlI4eTQ/edit?usp=sharing
(Picture can be found here)
(note: don't forget to substract your casting bonus! For example, when casting a "10+" difficulty spel with a lvl 2, you have to look at the "8+" row.)

Archmage and Mage with High Magic Casting Statistics:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1OoeO7if8VpSVVtNWlPMXMtOW8/edit?usp=sharing
(See below for picture)

Loremaster (with and without BoH) casting statistics:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1OoeO7if8VpTUk2Ti1RNS1ZYVU/edit?usp=sharing
(See below for picture)

Archmage with Shadow Magic and Book of Hoeth:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1OoeO7if8VpakVxQ0dobnBBVlk/edit?usp=sharing
(See below for picture)

EDIT: seperated each spreadsheet in a seperate doc, since there were problems with downloading. Please let me know if you have problems with downloading and tell me the issue.

Basically, for each combination of "Casting Value" and "Power Dice amount", there are six figures:
- the blue one is the normal successful casting chance.
- the green one is the Book of Hoeth chance
- the black one is the increase in successful casting chance from normal to BoH (and is only there for indicative purpose)
- the three orange figures are (1) normal IF chance, (2) increase by BoH, and (3) actual chance of IF with BoH (Mind the "note" here though: calculations are made assuming you only use the reroll when your initial casting result is below the required casting value and you reroll the lowest die. You can increase your IF chances - as well as your casting total in general (without necessarily getting IF) - when you start rerolling dice even if you met the required casting value.)

The effect of BoH on casting success rate (not even taking into account the above mentioned potential to increase your casting total or increase chance of IF) is big. In some cases chances goes up by 20-25%! Although this is mostly limited to 10-15% (up to 20% maybe) in the range of chances you usually want to cast at (80% and above). For example casting 9+ with 3 PD goes from 74,1% to 89,5%, an increase of 15,4%. You can get higher increases, for example +23,1% when casting 11+ with 3 dice, from 50,0% to 73,1%, but 73% is still very risky.

Book of Hoeth and High Magic

One notable exception - and what to me seems to be one of the biggest benefits of BoH - is the increase in chance by +22,2%, from 66,7% to 88,9% when trying to cast 3+ with one die. (basically the same statistics our elites used to hit on: from 1/3 to 8/9)
Combine this with (1) the extreme low casting values of High Magic and (2) the +5 to cast for an Elven Archmage on a High.
Apotheosis, Drain Magic, Hand of Glory, Soul Quench and Walk between worlds (5 out of 8 High spells!) are all cast on an 8+ or less (you can even double up on Soul Quench!). In fact it doesn't matter whether it's 5+ or 8+ (at least for a Archmage) since it's just the "not-a-1-or-2" that keeps an AM from successful casting. So each of these spells can be cast with a 8/9 (or 88,9%) chance. So the chances of successfully casting a series of 1-die spells is:
# - chance (= (8/9)^(#) )
1 - 88,9%
2 - 79,0%
3 - 70,2%
4 - 62,4%
5 - 55,5%
(I included '5' one-die spells because an AM could get Soul quench as 5th spell through Ring of Fury)
Personally I quite like these odds. They also put the opponent in a tight spot: (1) semi-reliably dispel with 2 DD? Or (2) try an dispel with 1 DD but risk (1 in 3) to fail automatically or don't even meet the required casting value (+5 to cast from HE AM is a lot...). The first option, dispelling 1PD with 2DD is quite brilliant for HEs and give you the edge in the rest of the magic phase. The second option, 1-die dispel , leaves the other mage with (at least) 1/2 chance of losing concentration (we'll always have 3+5 = 8, so the +4-to-dispel other AM will need at least a 4, and most likely more).

I think I will often go for an attempt of 3, 4 or 5 spells on 1 die. There are of course two downsides: (1) you miss out on High Magic's more powerful spells if you go for 4 low casting value spells and (2) you have the chance of losing concentration (see small chart above for chances). To me, the best solution to these 2 downsides is a lvl 2 mage. He serves as a backup caster in case the AM loses concentration AND is almost guaranteed to get the more powerful higher casting value spells your AM didn't get (although these might be a bit hard to cast for a lvl2...).

Ideas, comments and other strategies(?)

I think High Magic's HUGE strength doesn't necessarily come from the spells themselves (even though I think most are absolutely awesome), but from the sick combination of BOH and +5 to cast while High and all low casting values for High Magic. I can see a lot of people getting frustrated with this combo. Which leads to my question: just how frustrated will people be with this combo compared to the previous BoH? With the scheme above I see us getting as much, if not more, spells through during an average magic phase then with the old BoH... What's your view on this?
(Mind you I never played with BoH (old nor new) so don't speak out of experience)

What is your take on BoH (and High Magic)?


Last edited by Jadex on Tue May 14, 2013 9:13 am, edited 7 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 6:25 pm 
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Scotty? Laforge? Kaylee? Engy? Evil Wrench?

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I built a simulator to obtain these numbers, which is available here:
http://warhammer.orderoftheathanor.eu/b ... hoeth.html
The numbers seem to match, given enough simulations... But it can take quite some before the numbers approach yours.

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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 9:15 pm 
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Daeron wrote:
I built a simulator to obtain these numbers, which is available here:
http://warhammer.orderoftheathanor.eu/b ... hoeth.html
The numbers seem to match, given enough simulations... But it can take quite some before the numbers approach yours.


Daeron, nice to see other people are also working on this an validating results! :)

The approach I took is not a simulation though, but a calculation (I guess...). It only takes a few second to generate the whole table. With simulations and generating random numbers (random dice rolls, right?), you have a lot of simulations to go through before you get statistical relevant results (like you say, the higher the number of simulations for each PD#+castingvalue combination, the higher the accuracy). But in my calculation I just go over each possible outcome once. So whatever the casting value, for a 1 PD cast, you only have 6 possible outcomes, each of which as equal statistical chance of coming up. For 2 PD casts you have 36 outcomes, for 3PD casts you get 216, etc. And since each combination as an equal statistical chance to come up as result, you only go over each outcome once ( + check if it meets the casting value, if not: reroll lowest die (just go from 1 to 6 as possible results) and check again ).

If you are interested in the code:
(didn't include the "Form" code, just the logic behind the button click)
(also: how can I "hide" this? to save space?)


Code:
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.ComponentModel;
using System.Data;
using System.Drawing;
using System.Linq;
using System.Text;
using System.Windows.Forms;

namespace CastingStatistics_WHFB_BoH
{
    public partial class Form1 : Form
    {
        public Form1()
        {
            InitializeComponent();
        }

        private void btnCastingStats_Click(object sender, EventArgs e)
        {
            txtResults.Text = "Results success calculations" + Environment.NewLine;
            txtResults.Text += "\t"+"1"+"\t"+"2"+"\t"+"3"+"\t"+"4"+"\t"+"5"+"\t"+"6"+"\t" + Environment.NewLine;
            txtIF.Text = "Results Irresistable Force calculations" + Environment.NewLine;
            txtIF.Text += " \t1\t2\t3\t4\t5\t6\t" + Environment.NewLine;
            for (int castingValue = 3; castingValue < 25; castingValue++)
            {
                txtResults.Text += castingValue.ToString() + "\t";
                txtIF.Text += castingValue.ToString() + "\t";
                for (int nrDice = 1; nrDice <= 6; nrDice++)
                {
                    int nrOfRolls = 0;
                    double IF = 0;
                    double normalSuccess = 0;

                    //Start rolling the dice... (each possible combination once)
                    for (int i = 1; i <= 6; i++)
                    {
                        if (nrDice > 1) for (int j = 1; j <= 6; j++)
                        {
                            if (nrDice > 2) for (int k = 1; k <= 6; k++)
                            {
                                if (nrDice > 3) for (int l = 1; l <= 6; l++)
                                {
                                    if (nrDice > 4) for (int m = 1; m <= 6; m++)
                                    {
                                        if (nrDice > 5) for (int n = 1; n <= 6; n++)
                                        {
                                            // do the 6 casting dice calculation
                                            CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[] { i, j, k, l, m, n });
                                        }
                                        else // do the 5 casting dice calculation
                                        {
                                            CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[] { i, j, k, l, m });
                                        }
                                    }
                                    else // do the 4 casting dice calculation
                                    {
                                        CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[] { i, j, k, l });
                                    }
                                }
                                else // do the 3 casting dice calculation
                                {
                                    CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[] { i, j, k });
                                }
                            }
                            else // do the 2 casting dice calculation
                            {
                                CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[] { i, j });
                            }
                        }
                        else // do the 1 casting dice calculation
                        {
                            CalcDiceStats(castingValue, ref nrOfRolls, ref IF, ref normalSuccess, new int[]{ i });
                        }
                    }
                    // ... then round up statistics: (end of all roll results within one NrOfDice value and one casting Value)
                    double successrate = (IF + normalSuccess) / (double)nrOfRolls;
                    txtResults.Text += String.Format("{0:00.000}", successrate) + "\t";
                    txtIF.Text += String.Format("{0:00.000}", IF / (double)nrOfRolls) + "\t";
                }
                // end of loop going through a series of nrOfDice (1 to 6)
                txtResults.Text += Environment.NewLine;
                txtIF.Text += Environment.NewLine;
            }
            txtIF.Text += "finished...";
            txtResults.Text += "finished...";
        }

        void CalcDiceStats(int castingvalue, ref int rolls, ref double IF, ref double normalSuccess, int[] dicerolls)
        {
            rolls++;
            if (DiceContainsTwoSixes(dicerolls)) IF += 1; // check for IF
            else if (dicerolls.Sum() >= castingvalue) normalSuccess += 1; // normal casting success
            else if (cbxBoH.Checked) // spell hase failed, do nothing unless BoH calculations are needed, then get inside the next code
            {
                int indexlowest = getIndexOfLowest(dicerolls);
                for (int newroll = 1; newroll <= 6; newroll++)
                {
                    dicerolls[indexlowest] = newroll;
                    if (DiceContainsTwoSixes(dicerolls)) IF += 1.0/6.0;
                    else if (dicerolls.Sum() >= castingvalue) normalSuccess += 1.0 / 6.0;
                }
            }

        }

        bool DiceContainsTwoSixes(int[] dicerolls)
        {
            int nrOfSixes = 0;
            foreach (int dice in dicerolls) if (dice == 6) nrOfSixes++;
            return (nrOfSixes >= 2);
        }

        int getIndexOfLowest(int[] dicerolls)
        {
            int indexOfLowest = 0;
            for (int i = 0; i < dicerolls.Length; i++) if (dicerolls[i] < dicerolls[indexOfLowest]) indexOfLowest = i;
            return indexOfLowest;
        }
    }
}


But, code, logic and algorithms aside: I'm suprised people don't seem more keen on sharing their Book of Hoeth opinions, experiences, tactics, plans, etc...? :wink:


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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 9:49 pm 
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First game with the new book i took a Loremaster and a level 1 mage (Scroll caddy). I was amazed at the effectiveness of the book and now i really want to try it with the Archmage with high spells.

Thanks for the numbers!


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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 9:11 am 
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@jbf101 - You're welcome, let me know what your experiences are :wink:

Also: a new, reduces-in-scope overview of casting chances for a, Archmage lvl4 with BoH on Hgh and a Mage lvl2 on High. Print and use for quick reference during a game ; )

Image
EDIT: edited to show percentages with one less decimal

EDIT: please let me know if there are any mistakes! Based on HERO's blog. I don't have book yet since I live and work in Uganda at the moment...


Last edited by Jadex on Wed May 08, 2013 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 9:31 am 
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i just rolled my loremaster and book of hoeth out last night for the first time.
i went to cast iceshard blizzard on an ironblaster. rolled a 6 + 2. re-rolled the 2, got a 6.
cascaded, got sucked into the warp and the explosion decimated his swordmaster regiment from 18 to 3 men.

just a warning to you guys yet to use it, you def have a greater chance of IF with this item lol

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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 9:48 am 
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Scotty? Laforge? Kaylee? Engy? Evil Wrench?

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Well.. not being a HE player, but based on my DE experience with (rather limited use of) the sacrificial dagger, I'd focus on the low to middle range spells that require 2 to 3 power dice:
- 2-3 power dice have a relatively small chance of causing irresistible force
- There's still that odd chance of rolling 1 or 2 (well on 2 dice anyway) which can be rerolled.
- IF you roll a single 6 on those first dice, you probably succeeded in the spell and don't need to reroll to avoid the risk on IF (unless you want the risk)
- If you didn't roll a single 6, you can still reroll the lowest dice just to up the cast value of your roll and increase the pressure on the enemy.

Suddenly these rather small spells become difficult to block and may discourage your opponent from blocking them, especially when there's still a big spell on the way. So you put pressure on the enemy, giving them tough decisions.
Then I'd go for the large spell, leaving out only 1 or 2 dice for a finishing touch. Large spells will always be a threat, and either they'll save their dice for it or they'll decide to scroll it.

Then I'd finish by 1-dicing the last spells. They may have a slightly higher chance to fail, but the idea here is to get a lot of reward for cheap investment without risking to burn down your magic phase.

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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 9:55 am 
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Jadex, that is beautiful - will definitely print and use - thanks!

Could you do one for Loremaster spells with/without BoH and with his +2 caster level to see the comparison? I think I favour AM at the moment because +5 compared to +2 seems pretty big, but I don't really know how it'll compare when the book is factored in. Who knows, maybe if you can spam one or two dice the LM is better because he has more than 4 spells he can get off!

It'd be interesting to see how the other lores compare to high for the AM as well but that would be a lot of work! I wonder how much difference +4 vs +5 makes for one thing. But other seemingly small changes I think may have a big impact on lore choice. In 7th Shadow was pretty go-to given all the extra PD for the hungry spells, but maybe less so now (despite still being an amazing lore). Maybe we'll see a rise in the cheaper lores? Life worked really well with the cheap silver wand as every spell was better with thrones, but that would otherwise reduce you to just 3 to cast (don't know if that's enough to put people off, but it was a nice, cheap, effective build).

Anyway, as it's a new toy, I'm gonna play with High first - and those charts are perfect - thanks :D.

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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 10:24 am 
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@Ferny
You can you this:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45230

cheers
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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 6:15 pm 
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@Csjarrat - Indeed, your chance of IF rise quite a bit, so have to be careful :)

Daeron wrote:
Suddenly these rather small spells become difficult to block and may discourage your opponent from blocking them, especially when there's still a big spell on the way. So you put pressure on the enemy, giving them tough decisions.
[...]
Then I'd finish by 1-dicing the last spells. They may have a slightly higher chance to fail, but the idea here is to get a lot of reward for cheap investment without risking to burn down your magic phase.


Indeed, putting the pressure on the opponent by giving him only bad options is always good 8) . I especially see one-PD-casting as putting the pressure on him/her (see reasoning above). It's risky, each time you have 11% chance of loosing concentration, but the reward is in my view bigger then the potential losses. You loose contentration and one PD, but your backup caster (!) should be able to use the rest...

Ferny wrote:
Jadex, that is beautiful - will definitely print and use - thanks!

Could you do one for Loremaster spells with/without BoH and with his +2 caster level to see the comparison?
[...]
It'd be interesting to see how the other lores compare to high for the AM as well but that would be a lot of work!


Done and done :wink: (for Loremaster with and without BoH)

Image

It is indeed a bit of work, so I'll leave all the other Lores to someone else. But basically all these charts don't tell anything that my initial BIG chart from the link in the first post doesn't tell. They only show the same statistics in an orderly, mage+lore specific fashion. Any kind of spellcasting can make use of the chart above.

Furion wrote:
@Ferny
You can you this:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45230


Oh, nice! I checked the tactics forum before I posted, to check if anyone else had done it before, but hadn't looked inti the others... Always good to compare figures though, I guess. Thanks for linking to your topic!


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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 1:56 am 
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Thanks - that's amazing. Both new toys covered now :D.

Furion, I wasn't able to download for some reason (probably a problem my end) - I'll try on another computer when i get access.

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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 4:51 am 
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Very nice! I couldn't download the spreadsheet from the site though. Could you please post the table here with the IF chance too? I think it also applies for the chance of dispelling with IF with the BoH, it'll be interesting to know it. Thanks!

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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 7:06 am 
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Tuor Faelivrin wrote:
Very nice! I couldn't download the spreadsheet from the site though. Could you please post the table here with the IF chance too? I think it also applies for the chance of dispelling with IF with the BoH, it'll be interesting to know it. Thanks!


Thanks for pointing out this issue. I could download it while logged in into MyDrive in Firefow, but indeed couldn't when I tried downloading it with Chrome while not logged in (the issue was the file was "too big"(?)... Was that the same for you?). I seperated the three spreadsheets into 3 seperate (google doc) documents and now I can download them (while not logged in). Could you check if this solved the problem for you as well? Thanks!


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PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2013 10:17 am 
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My previous problem was 'File Not Found' when I clicked to download it. There was a message that said 'the file is too big'. I didn't login using Chrome at that time.

Today I still encountered similar problem and the message is still there, but then I tried logging in with Chrome and I could download the files. I guess we have to create Google account, login and download the file.

Thanks!

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PostPosted: Sat May 11, 2013 5:00 pm 
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OK, let me copy the link to the image here.
Or just put it up here...
Image
(note: when looking up chances, don't forget to substract your casting bonus! For example, when casting a "10+" difficulty spel with a lvl 2, you have to look at the "8+" row.)


Last edited by Jadex on Tue May 14, 2013 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 8:27 pm 
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Another popular one: Shadow Magic on an Archmage with Book of Hoeth

Image

(Edit: corrections! Noticed a mistake. Please notify me when you spot any as well!)


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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 8:05 am 
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Jadex wrote:
OK, let me copy the link to the image here.
Or just put it up here...
*table*

For me what I take away form the table is that if you're aiming around the 80% succes rate of spells, the book adds +2 to the result.

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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 10:21 pm 
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This is a fantastic bit of work, well done! I particularly like that you've done it for Shadow magic also. Any chance you could maybe do one for Archmage with Death or Heavens? It would be interesting to see the results.

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PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 9:11 am 
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rdghuizing wrote:
For me what I take away form the table is that if you're aiming around the 80% succes rate of spells, the book adds +2 to the result.
Rod


Indeed, perfect observation. I will add support to your statement with the following chart where I indicated the same increases in chance for BoH and "+2" to cast:
Image

"+2" to cast would have the advantage over BoH in many case by 0 to 2% better increase, BUT one important area is the low-cast-value spells that need only a 3+ or a 4+ to cast (after subtracting the +4 or +5 to cast from your mage).
Example: you're casting a spell that's 7+ diff.. So you'll need a 3+ plus roll. An increased bonus to your casting value (if possible, hypothetically, with some non-existent magic item) wouldn't help you: A roll of 1 or 2 on a 1-dice rol is still a failure whatever the bonuses, while with the BoH you get to reroll that 1 or 2 and drastically increase your chances.
(again, I see a lot of potential in 1-dice casting when needing 3+. I think people might refrain from it for psychological reasons though. While in reality many people would see 89% chance as a low risk roll (I think many people used to roll Pit of Shades 14+ with Archmage, needing 10+ to cast for a chance of 90% without feeling this was too risky). Sure, with one dicing you also have more spells you're casting, cumulatively increasing chances of loosing concentration, but what you get in return is I think nice (see initial post), just have a decent backup caster.

Pash wrote:
This is a fantastic bit of work, well done! I particularly like that you've done it for Shadow magic also. Any chance you could maybe do one for Archmage with Death or Heavens? It would be interesting to see the results.


Glad you're happy. I got other requests to do all Lores like this. I might do this in due time, but if you can't wait, you can easily make a table like that yourself. Just copy/paste the percentages from the big casting sheet to your small "one-lore-specific" template :wink:


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 8:32 am 
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[quote="Jadex"]@jbf101 - You're welcome, let me know what your experiences are :wink:
[img]http://i1145.photobucket.com/albums/o507/Jadekz/ArchmageMageChances.png[/img]
[/quote]
Any chance you could include the irresistible force chance in this otherwise wonderful piece of info :).

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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:58 am 
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Ilithien wrote:
Any chance you could include the irresistible force chance in this otherwise wonderful piece of info :).

Should I do tables for all lores, I'll include IF chances and make one for High Magic mages with IF chances as well. But you can easily find the corresponding IF chances in the big chart and add them to the smaller chart(s) yourself, for the time being :wink:


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 12:59 pm 
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Thanks again for these Jadex, they really are great.

Shadow looks to me to not make optimal use of the book. Ignore steed because you almost certainly will. If you take Withering, which makes our shooting phase much better, it's 3-4 dice (4-5 at range). Take any other spell bar miasma and it's the same or more. That's a minimum of 6 dice, 7-8 if you don't fancy your chances...it's not going to allow for more than 2 (non miasma) spells in most phases, with chances high on at least one being dispelled.

Compare it to (admittedly purpose built) high. You can 1-dice 5 spells (including both sigs). Or, if you don't fancy that, you can mix/match 1-2 dicing them. It's only really boosted spells which need 3-4 dice (bringing them up to Shadow level for dice-hungryness), and the Fiery Convocation...which while it doesn't really synergise well with the book (although it does make it easier to cast), it will destroy a unit unless they essentially sacrifice their own magic phase to dispel it, so it's an excellent exception.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:16 am 
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Nice update:

Vladamex has created a crib for beasts using your base model (assuming wildform on some of the spells):
viewtopic.php?f=67&t=47394

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2013 12:13 pm 
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This is great, thanks! I use the loremaster, hoping a nice trickle phases - these are very helpful!

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2013 5:10 pm 
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All of these charts are wonderful! I will be trying to grab these onto my iPad for reference in games until I memorize the most important ones.

There's one thing I notice about the charts, which isn't a big deal considering how much work went into them, is that for 2 PD there is always at least 1/36 chance to cast any any spell regardless of casting cost (by rolling double sixes). For 3 PD, there is always at least a 2/27 chance (2 or 3 sixes), and so on.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:47 pm 
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Jadex wrote:
Apotheosis, Drain Magic, Hand of Glory, Soul Quench and Walk between worlds (5 out of 8 High spells!) are all cast on an 8+ or less (you can even double up on Soul Quench!). In fact it doesn't matter whether it's 5+ or 8+ (at least for a Archmage) since it's just the "not-a-1-or-2" that keeps an AM from successful casting. So each of these spells can be cast with a 8/9 (or 88,9%) chance. So the chances of successfully casting a series of 1-die spells is:
# - chance (= (8/9)^(#) )
1 - 88,9%
2 - 79,0%
3 - 70,2%
4 - 62,4%
5 - 55,5%
(I included '5' one-die spells because an AM could get Soul quench as 5th spell through Ring of Fury)


This whole work is amazing so thanks a lot for that!

I think the Book might not work on the Ring of Fury, at least it is debated heavily and needs a FAQ.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:04 am 
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NHB wrote:
Jadex wrote:
Apotheosis, Drain Magic, Hand of Glory, Soul Quench and Walk between worlds (5 out of 8 High spells!) are all cast on an 8+ or less (you can even double up on Soul Quench!). In fact it doesn't matter whether it's 5+ or 8+ (at least for a Archmage) since it's just the "not-a-1-or-2" that keeps an AM from successful casting. So each of these spells can be cast with a 8/9 (or 88,9%) chance. So the chances of successfully casting a series of 1-die spells is:
# - chance (= (8/9)^(#) )
1 - 88,9%
2 - 79,0%
3 - 70,2%
4 - 62,4%
5 - 55,5%
(I included '5' one-die spells because an AM could get Soul quench as 5th spell through Ring of Fury)


This whole work is amazing so thanks a lot for that!

I think the Book might not work on the Ring of Fury, at least it is debated heavily and needs a FAQ.

Of course, the funny thing about statistics is that the results in the serries don't actually have much influence on casting probabilities.

After you have succesfully cast the first spell, the serries changes to
2 - 88,9%
3 - 79,0%
4 - 70,2%
5 - 62,4%

Previous results don't influence future ones. So each time you pick up you dice to roll, you have a 88,9% chance of succesfully casting the spell using 1-dice. So spell 5 would still have an 88,9% chance of being cast succesfully after the first 4 have been cast succesfully.

Rod

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:17 am 
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rdghuizing wrote:
NHB wrote:
Jadex wrote:
Apotheosis, Drain Magic, Hand of Glory, Soul Quench and Walk between worlds (5 out of 8 High spells!) are all cast on an 8+ or less (you can even double up on Soul Quench!). In fact it doesn't matter whether it's 5+ or 8+ (at least for a Archmage) since it's just the "not-a-1-or-2" that keeps an AM from successful casting. So each of these spells can be cast with a 8/9 (or 88,9%) chance. So the chances of successfully casting a series of 1-die spells is:
# - chance (= (8/9)^(#) )
1 - 88,9%
2 - 79,0%
3 - 70,2%
4 - 62,4%
5 - 55,5%
(I included '5' one-die spells because an AM could get Soul quench as 5th spell through Ring of Fury)


This whole work is amazing so thanks a lot for that!

I think the Book might not work on the Ring of Fury, at least it is debated heavily and needs a FAQ.

Of course, the funny thing about statistics is that the results in the serries don't actually have much influence on casting probabilities.

After you have succesfully cast the first spell, the serries changes to
2 - 88,9%
3 - 79,0%
4 - 70,2%
5 - 62,4%

Previous results don't influence future ones. So each time you pick up you dice to roll, you have a 88,9% chance of succesfully casting the spell using 1-dice. So spell 5 would still have an 88,9% chance of being cast succesfully after the first 4 have been cast succesfully.

Rod


Yeah I get that :-) But if the BoH doesn't grant reroll in the ring, The chance to cast the bound spell is not 88,9%

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:06 pm 
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Jadex wrote:
Ilithien wrote:
Any chance you could include the irresistible force chance in this otherwise wonderful piece of info :).

Should I do tables for all lores, I'll include IF chances and make one for High Magic mages with IF chances as well. But you can easily find the corresponding IF chances in the big chart and add them to the smaller chart(s) yourself, for the time being :wink:


Yes! Or at least Archmage & Mage Lore of Heavens :)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:49 pm 
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[Oops, missed one of the above posts.]


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