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 Post subject: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:23 pm 
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Pretty well it seems but this is mysterious:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mar ... nties.html

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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:15 am 
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Interesting. All in all, GW as a company has had a great couple of years, judging from the growth they've had so far.

Interesting that they leave people guessing as to which headwinds they see. Two big geopolitical factors could be either the impending trade-war between the US and china (I don't know if GW manufactures a lot in China, sounds like a reasonable guess). Or it could be Brexit related, where they fear either tariffs in Europe or decreasing domestic spending.

Of course, it can be any number of other things. From competing games to a lukewarm reception of a new edition or rising oil prices or some planning issues which has delayed several new models which will in the short term reduce spending. I don't think they're too worried.

Rod

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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:25 am 
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I'd assume it's Brexit. But I don't know why they didn't come out and say it. Investors have factored in the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, to the point where a lot of stocks will go up right after regardless of the deal. By not saying they created new uncertainties, at least in the minds of investors. That's the strange part to me.


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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:56 pm 
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That's why I hesitate to say it's Brexit. If they would simply come out and say "Brexit could cause some trouble down the line" then investors would simply shrug and go on with business as usual. By not saying this they create a lot of uncertainty, which has never helped a stock.

Then again, I wouldn't put it past GW to simply shoot themselves in the foot with this one...

And yes, I also think Brexit the most likely candidate, given how the whole discussion is currently unfolding.

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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:05 am 
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I think it is Brexit. That they are not very clear about it, is political: the WH public is probably very mixed in its opinion on Brexit en moreover, they do not want to be classified as taking a political stance and/or being branded as a player in an alleged 'project fear'.


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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:34 am 
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Not being in the UK means I only have a distant view of the whole discussion. But I would think a simple, factual statement like "Brexit is causing a lot of uncertainty for our customers and in regards to future trade agreements between the UK and our most important markets" could have easily covered this without getting political. I don't think anyone would have take offence at such a statement (assuming they would even read the financial coverage of GW of course).

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PS: Bring cookies!

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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:38 am 
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I bet it's due to there not being a total war game out this year. Also the one they did release has had a very slow doc schedule.

Wouldn't want to get on it but suspect a large portion of their revenue stems from licenses rather than minis these days.

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 Post subject: Re: How GW is doing?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:39 am 
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Tahl wrote:
I bet it's due to there not being a total war game out this year. Also the one they did release has had a very slow doc schedule.

Wouldn't want to get on it but suspect a large portion of their revenue stems from licenses rather than minis these days.

That could definitely cause an impact, since royalties are almost "free money". You don't have to do much for it as a company. I've dug up their financial statements for the past 4 years. And royalties have grown quite fast. From 1.5 million in 2015 to 7.5 million in 2017 and almost 10 million in 2018 (their financial year ends in august...).

However, while significant, it's still a small portion of their profit. Pre-tax profit without royalties in 2018 was almost 65 million. Up from 15 million in 2015. So they're doing pretty well, both with royalties, but also without them.

Still, if royalties would halve in 2019, that would be about a 5% drop in pre-tax profit. So at least it would be difficult to keep the pace of growth they've had in the past year.

It's significant enough to issue a trading update. Though again, it raises the question about why they didn't simply specify it. Simply saying "we expect fewer royalties come in because of X" takes away a lot of uncertainty and would be less likely to trigger a "panic" reaction from traders.

Though of course it pays to remember that in the short the market is a popularity contest and in the long run it's a weighing machine.

it might actually be a good moment to get some GW shares... ;)

Rod

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Eirik wrote:
Please try to remember that, no matter how 'official' the source seems, rumours are basically just a dictionary combined with a random number generator

For Nagarythe: Come to the dark side.
PS: Bring cookies!

Check out my plog
Painting progress, done/in progress/in box: 167/33/91


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